US

If there is one American community that you might think has more reason than most to be wary of Donald Trump, it is the millions of Latinos across the country.

Yet the man who once labelled Mexicans as “rapists and criminals” and vilified migrants before and after the last election does maintain some support in the Latino community.

And the president has been making an aggressive last-minute push for the Latino vote ahead of 3 November. It is a slice of the electorate that could prove decisive.

Voters in the Latino community are, of course, as diverse in their political views as any group in America. And whether it is the Cuban-Americans of Florida or the Mexican-Americans in the southwest, Mr Trump is just as polarising as for the rest of the country.

How important is the Latino vote?

Joshua Ulibarr
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Pollster Joshua Ulibarr says the Biden campaign is chasing that Latino vote

This will be the first US election in which Latino voters make up the largest minority group.

The shifting demographics in America have been a growing feature of recent elections with the move towards a “majority minority” face of the nation.

More from Arizona

The country is changing, especially in states like California, Texas, Arizona and Nevada and Mr Trump’s anti-immigration policies and the perception he is focused more on his white, working-class base has energised the minority vote.

“Latinos have become more active and more energised,” said pollster Joshua Ulibarri, “and with a shifting white vote, that is the winning coalition that Democrats are chasing”.

Which are the states to watch?

Caitlin Montoya
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Caitlin Montoya says people in the US have more reason than ever to vote in this election

In the state of Arizona, one in five voters this time will be Latino. Mr Trump beat Hillary Clinton by four percentage points in 2016 but the polls this time show him behind Joe Biden and Latino interest in the election is surging, particularly among young voters in the urban centres like Phoenix.

“I think a lot of people have more reason to come to the polls this time,” said Caitlin Montoya.

She said “unseen Democrats” are especially engaged, “because they see how much chaos there’s been these past four years and they want a competent president”.

Tania
Lopez
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Tania Lopez believes voters have become tired of the divisive nature of US politics

The strong connections to Mexico within the community in Arizona made Mr Trump’s comments about the country especially distasteful.

“I was bummed out when he won in 2016 and I think people have just got more tired the more he opens his mouth,” said Tania Lopez.

Her work colleague Phanessa Salazar agreed. “He’s said so many harsh things to so many different minority people, not just Latinos, he just in general has a foul mouth and that’s something we don’t need representing our country.”

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How to win a US election

But there is a familiar divide within the Latino community in Phoenix. “There’s a lot of conservative Hispanics, it is prominent in the catholic culture,” said Montoya.

“But hopefully people can see past that and care more about their rights, their people’s rights and their family’s rights.”

Who are Trump’s Latino supporters?

You don’t have to look far to find the very vocal and engaged “Latinos for Trump” at his events.

It is often reported that as many as 30% of Latino Americans support Donald Trump and the popular view is that the majority of those are men.

“Trump’s appeal is a big puzzle to figure out,” said Mr Ulibarri. “The group Trump most appeals to is Hispanic men, college graduate Hispanic men and younger Hispanic men.”

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He said Mr Trump’s projection of himself as a strong leader focused on the economy and job creation is especially successful.

“Latino men have to be the providers, we have to be the ones earning the wages, bringing in the money, so Trump’s appeal, better, stronger jobs, has worked on these men in the past,” he added.

Add to that Mr Trump’s tough rhetoric on places like Cuba and Venezuela, this too has proved popular in Latino communities linked to those countries.

The Trump campaign’s attempt to reach young men might be falling flat though. At the Tres Leches coffee shop, Emmanuel Lupercio said: “It just shows he’s desperate. It hasn’t worked.”

But Democrats are nervous and they have been accused of taking the Latino vote for granted in recent years and neglecting that economic conversation with the community.

Emmanuel Lupercio
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Emmanuel Lupercio thinks the Trump campaign’s attempts to win over Latino men has failed

So, could Trump win the Latino vote?

No. And the president knows it.

In 2016 just one in five Latinos voted for him. But his campaign’s push for Latino votes is strategic.

“The president is not trying to win the majority of Latino voters,” said Mr Ulibarri. “All he has to do is win enough of the Latino vote to make it impossible for Democrats to put that winning coalition together.”

Carmen Zamora
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Carmen Zamora hopes young Latinos go out and vote

Mr Biden will win votes in the Latino community and amongst Latino men in particular but he needs to win with percentages in the 60s to flip states like Arizona, Florida, Texas and Georgia from red to blue. The question is: will he reach those numbers?

Young voters in Arizona are worried that other generations will be too willing to accept the status quo.

Carmen Zamora runs the Casa de Lola plant nursery and will vote for the first time this year.

She said: “I see my parents and they’re not doing the research, they’re not getting involved. We need the community to vote.

“There is a lot of tradition and religion that goes hand in hand. I hope our voice as a minority gets heard and I hope the younger generation go and vote so that we can see change happen.”

Judith Esqueda
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Judith Esqueda fears people won’t turn out and vote again because of apathy

At the counter of Tres Leches, Judith Esqueda offered her bleak assessment: “I’m sad about the election. I don’t think most people are going to vote.

“Last election there was a lot of talk about voting, when it was ridiculous who was running for president, but nobody voted ‘contra’, nobody tried to go against him.

“I’m not sure if they will this time. So, there’s a dread.”

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