An “incremental creep” of coronavirus infections from young to old people has already “baked in” more deaths, a senior government adviser has warned.
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England’s deputy chief medical officer, revealed there has been a “marked pickup” of COVID-19 cases since early September.
He said given more people have caught the disease, “we have baked in additional hospital admissions and sadly we also have baked in additional deaths”.
Presenting a new “heat map”, Prof Van-Tam said cases in northwest England rose first among those aged 16-29, but are now beginning to spread to more vulnerable age groups.
Prof Van-Tam showed a heat map of coronavirus cases by age
That pattern is “likely to be followed” in the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber, he cautioned at a Downing Street news briefing on Monday.
Meanwhile NHS Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate have been told to prepare to start accepting patients again.
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Nightingale hospitals put on standby
This is because around 40% of all cases are concentrated in the North West, according to Prof Jane Eddleston, who also spoke at the news conference.
Northern England has particularly high case numbers because there they “never dropped as far as they did in the south”, added Prof Van-Tam.
But he said it was a “concern” that bigger increases in the weekly case rate had spread south “in a matter of a few days” and that “pretty much” every area is seeing cases rise.
Case rate increases are also growing in the south
“The COVID situation is building nationally, particularly in the North West and the North East,” Prof Van-Tam said.
“There is a massive collective responsibility on every citizen now to play their part in defeating this virus and getting it back under control.”
It comes ahead of Boris Johnson preparing to carve England into three tiers depending on their coronavirus prevelance, with some areas set for further restrictions expected to include the forced closure of pubs and bars.
The prime minister will lay out his plans in a statement to parliament at 3:30pm, then hold a news conference at around 6pm.